THE POOL REPORT
CLAIMSTPR-CLAIM-004REVIEWED AUG 2, 2026Government records
THE CLAIM PEOPLE SHARED

“The U.S. divorce rate is 2.4%.”

RATINGA rate per 1,000, not a 2.4% probability4 of 5 · A rate per 1,000, not a 2.4% probability · Rubric: 1 unsupported · 2 misleading · 3 mixed or outdated · 4 accurate with context · 5 accurate as stated
ANSWER

What we found.

CDC/NCHS reported 2.4 divorces per 1,000 people in 45 reporting states and Washington, D.C. in 2023. The number is preliminary. The government can change it later. It is not 2.4%. It is not a person’s lifetime chance of divorce.

2.4

divorces per 1,000 population.

FULL GROUP COUNTED: 45 reporting states and D.C. in provisional 2023 data
1 / WHAT THE WORDS MEAN

An event rate is not marital prevalence.

These words may sound alike, but they count different groups. Do not compare their numbers as if they came from the same group.

MeasureWhat it meansWhat it does not mean
Circulated wordingThe U.S. divorce rate is 2.4%.A current, universal, or interchangeable statistic without its source definition attached.
2 / WHAT THIS NUMBER CANNOT TELL YOU

What the 2.4 rate cannot prove.

  1. The share of adults who are divorced or currently single.
  2. The probability that a particular marriage will end in divorce.
  3. A complete national rate when five states do not report the cited divorce data.
  4. Dating availability, relationship quality, or compatibility.
3 / A DIFFERENT NUMBER

Marital status answers a different question

The calculator’s ACS filter describes whether a person is currently married in a Census record. CDC’s divorce rate counts events during a year. Neither one is a direct measure of active dating.

RELATED TOOL / DIFFERENT MEASURE

Use the calculator’s marital-status definition, not an event rate.

The calculator does not convert divorce events into dating availability or a personal divorce probability.

Read the calculator methodology →
ORIGINAL SOURCES

Open the sources.

Every link opens the original publisher.

  1. 01 / Main source
    CDC/NCHS

    FastStats - Marriage and Divorce

    Official provisional counts, rates, and reporting coverage.

    Open source ↗
  2. 02 / Method details
    CDC/NCHS

    Marriages and Divorces

    Coverage and trend documentation.

    Open source ↗
  3. 03 / Method details
    U.S. Census Bureau

    2024 ACS 1-year PUMS Data Dictionary

    Calculator current-marital-status definition.

    Open source ↗
UPDATES / CORRECTIONS

We keep updates visible.

We review this page when: Review when the cited publisher issues a correction or a newer directly comparable release changes the population, definition, denominator, or result.

  1. Initial evidence review published with source, denominator, definition, and review trigger.

  2. Corrected the traceable external-source date; the August 1 date belongs to this Pool Report review, not the cited source.

Found a problem? Report it →