In a study published in 2013, 20.4% of long-distance participants reported a breakup over about four months. For nearby participants, the figure was 23.0%. The U.S. sample covered unmarried adults ages 18 to 35. They were in opposite-sex relationships and lived apart. This cannot establish a current or lifetime success rate.
Read what marriage-duration figures count→
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Who got counted in the comparison
Kelmer and colleagues began with 870 participants. Each had been in a relationship for at least two months and did not live with their partner. The researchers defined long distance as more than 50 miles between homes.
About four months later, 763 participants returned the survey. The breakup percentages describe those 763 respondents, grouped by the distance between their homes at the first survey. The researchers found no statistically clear difference between the groups. That does not prove equal outcomes. The American Statistical Association’s guidance says conclusions need more than whether a statistical test passes a threshold.
Use a source-reading table for any success claim
Before applying a percentage to your relationship, check what the source calls success. Is it still being together at a later survey, getting married, or a respondent saying it worked out? Keep that definition attached to the number.
Then check who entered the survey and when the outcome was measured. Following relationships already underway cannot show how many new relationships end before they would qualify for the survey. Ask which question you want the statistic to answer.
Read the denominator and the endpoint
The table may be wider than the screen. Focus it and use the arrow keys to reach every column.
| What to check | What this study used | Question it leaves open |
|---|---|---|
| People | Unmarried adults ages 18 to 35 in opposite-sex relationships, living apart | Does the source cover people like those in your question? |
| Starting point | Relationships already lasting at least two months | What happened before the survey began? |
| Distance | More than 50 miles at the initial survey | Did partners remain distant? |
| Outcome | Reported breakup over about four months | What happened after follow-up? |
| Follow-up | 763 of 870 participants responded | What happened to those who did not respond? |
How to use the table Keep the population and follow-up period beside a percentage. The table cannot predict an individual relationship.
How to read it: Source: Kelmer et al., original paper methods and results. Group percentages are reported in the opening. The table is a Research Desk reading aid; it adds no new survey results.
Download the table (CSV) ↓Why 79.6% still together is a limited answer
By Research Desk arithmetic on the published long-distance breakup percentage, 100% minus 20.4% equals 79.6%. That is the share still in the same relationship at follow-up, using the study’s rounded percentage. It describes the long-distance respondents who answered at that point.
Calling that figure a general success rate would leave the outcome undefined. Continued dating for four months, eventual marriage, and a satisfying relationship years later are different questions. This breakup comparison measured whether the original relationship was still intact at follow-up. It did not measure those later outcomes.
The study also began with relationships already in progress. Participants had to have been together for at least two months to qualify. The result therefore cannot describe every relationship from its first day, including those that ended before they could enter the sample.
What this comparison leaves unknown
The paper did not record distance at breakup or how often partners visited. Some initially distant partners may have moved closer before follow-up. The results describe a short period in an older study; they cannot tell you what will happen to your relationship.
A page with a current year in its title can cite older research. Look for the paper, its publication date and the survey period separately. If a source does not disclose a fieldwork date, keep that date unknown.
Choose the measure that matches your question
If you are checking a headline, use the table to write down its population, outcome and time period. If those details are missing, avoid treating the percentage as a personal forecast. Keep unanswered questions visible instead of filling them with a reassuring number.
For a question about marriage, read the U.S. marriage measures or marriage duration and survival figures. Those sources address other groups and outcomes. You can use a statistic to understand a study while keeping decisions about your own relationship with the people involved.
